Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 3.989052 4.348546 4.746507 5.223914 5.786818 6.436920 7.255915
2025-01-19 3.393439 3.835540 4.356898 5.029634 5.894604 7.000046 8.576229
2025-01-26 3.148551 3.653799 4.278410 5.131776 6.310831 7.960012 10.613502
2025-02-02 3.017883 3.580677 4.305148 5.346764 6.886480 9.244017 13.575954
2025-02-09 2.885948 3.484248 4.279687 5.472560 7.341812 10.451968 16.988373
2025-02-16 2.717000 3.319491 4.138574 5.404206 7.474497 11.148432 19.800102
2025-02-23 2.580743 3.186025 4.025310 5.357685 7.625976 11.911654 23.293317
2025-03-02 2.459896 3.063783 3.915394 5.299560 7.741790 12.634212 27.318003
2025-03-09 2.354271 2.955128 3.815258 5.243277 7.847481 13.366337 32.202178
2025-03-16 2.271938 2.874013 3.748964 5.233431 8.035663 14.349443 39.504425
2025-03-23 2.221837 2.835918 3.744073 5.324880 8.436715 16.017521 53.863749
2025-03-30 2.132083 2.734160 3.632818 5.218693 8.412933 16.549363 63.612520
2025-04-06 2.044286 2.632669 3.518244 5.100710 8.356554 17.010795 75.564379
2025-04-13 1.948249 2.514839 3.371554 4.913148 8.123088 16.867396 82.190457
2025-04-20 1.918197 2.495009 3.380524 5.011310 8.547562 19.051107 138.306746
2025-04-27 1.910685 2.508641 3.444045 5.217858 9.273201 22.870967 418.112199
2025-05-04 1.887107 2.495866 3.462359 5.338615 9.820423 26.576905 6729.719620
2025-05-11 1.832880 2.432477 3.391091 5.273009 9.865685 28.032600 NaN
2025-05-18 1.785646 2.378253 3.332606 5.228345 9.961748 29.897695 NaN
2025-05-25 1.739500 2.323988 3.271260 5.172525 10.017672 31.653171 NaN
2025-06-01 1.696328 2.272919 3.212999 5.118460 10.070652 33.519366 NaN
2025-06-08 1.662492 2.235643 3.177094 5.109000 10.257183 36.621336 NaN
2025-06-15 1.644984 2.224051 3.185889 5.196843 10.767579 43.279237 NaN